Collecting Vintage Watches as an Investment: The Real Picture

The Watch Market After the Bubble

The vintage watch market experienced an extraordinary run from 2020 to 2022, followed by a meaningful correction that continued into 2023-2024. Many references that had tripled or quadrupled in price gave back 30-50% of those gains.

This is not a bad thing for serious collectors. The frenzied market of 2021-2022 was characterised by buyers with no particular interest in watches treating them as momentum trades. The correction has restored a healthier relationship between watches as objects of craftsmanship and watches as investment assets.

For collectors approaching the market in 2026, the fundamentals are more compelling than at any point in the past three years.

What Has Held Value and Why

Rolex sports references (particularly those with documented provenance): The steel sports watches — Submariner, GMT-Master, Daytona — in vintage references with original (unpolished) cases and correct original dials have proven remarkably resilient. The "tropical" dial variants (where the original lacquer has aged to develop a brown or chocolate patina) command extraordinary premiums.

The key insight: original condition is everything. A Submariner reference 5513 in "new old stock" condition is a different category from the same reference that has been polished, serviced with incorrect parts, or dial-restored.

Patek Philippe perpetual calendars and grand complications: Patek occupies a separate market tier. The brand's position as the apex of Swiss watchmaking is effectively permanent. Vintage perpetual calendars — particularly the reference 2497, 2438, and 3448 — have sustained value even through the broader correction.

Independent watchmakers (early examples): Watches from the first generation of independent Swiss watchmakers — F.P. Journe, Philippe Dufour, early Urwerk — have appreciated steadily. The production volumes are genuinely small, the craftsmanship is extraordinary, and the collector community is sophisticated and passionate.

What Hasn't Performed

The watches that disappointed most during the correction:

Modern Rolex at secondary market premiums: Buying a new Submariner at 2x retail and hoping to flip it at 3x is not collecting — it's speculation that worked in 2021 and stopped working in 2022.
Fashion watches with watch-adjacent positioning: AP Royal Oak and Nautilus recovered strongly after initial corrections, but many "luxury lifestyle" watches from houses without deep watchmaking heritage have struggled.
Watches without documentation: The market increasingly demands boxes, papers, and service history. Undocumented watches trade at meaningful discounts and the gap has widened.

Buying at Auction vs. Dealers

Both channels have merits:

Auction (Christie's, Sotheby's, Phillips, Antiquorum): Price transparency, competitive discovery, and the authentication credibility of the major houses. Buyer's premiums add 15-30% to hammer prices.

Specialist dealers: Less transparent pricing, but the ability to negotiate and (with trusted dealers) access to watches that never reach auction. The best dealers curate aggressively and their inventory is itself a form of authentication.

Online platforms (Chrono24, Watchfinder, Bob's Watches): Wide inventory, but authentication risk increases significantly. Suitable for sub-$5,000 purchases where the risk is proportionate. For significant vintage references, physical authentication is non-negotiable.

Starting a Vintage Watch Collection

The advice that has proven most durable: buy what you love, buy condition over reference, buy from documented sources, and be patient. The collectors who have done best in vintage watches are those who held 5-10+ years through market cycles.

For upcoming auction opportunities in watches and other categories, our auction calendar covers the major sales across Christie's and Sotheby's.